The Fears That The Jet Stream Might Change - Has Occurred.
http://www.lcsun-news.com/ci_10292189
Research says climate change already drying out Southwest
The Associated Press
Article Launched: 08/24/2008 02:02:18 PM MDT
ALBUQUERQUE, N.M.—Human-caused climate change has already shifted the jet stream that
brings the Southwest its winter snowstorms to the north, which is making the region's late winter
and early spring drier, according to new research by a team of Arizona scientists.
Their work supports one of climate-change scientists' key predictions for the Southwest—that the
jet stream will slowly shift to the north as the planet warms.
University of Arizona researcher Stephanie McAfee looked at rainfall data for the region and found
that the climate shift is already under way. Storms that would have hit the Four Corners region in
the past, instead get steered to the north. Not every year will be dry, McAfee said in an interview.
But the shift increases the proportion of years with below-average rain and snow.
Fewer storms from February to April lead to an earlier start of dry windy weather in New
Mexico, said Ed Polasko, a hydrologist at the National Weather Service in Albuquerque and a
leading snowpack expert in the state.
That can lead to an earlier snowmelt, Polasko said. But the dry winds can also evaporate the
snow, keeping it out of the state's rivers entirely.
Tom Swetnam, a fire-science researcher at the University of Arizona, says the climate change also
leads to an early and more dangerous wildfire season.
Scientists say the buildup of greenhouse gases from burning coal, oil and other fossil fuels is
changing Earth's climate.
They say the large deserts that circle the globe at low latitudes, like those found in Mexico or the
Middle East, will expand toward the poles. That, they say, can also be expected to dry out the
Southwest. McAfee's study is important because it shows that climate change is not merely a
scenario for the future, but may already be under way, said Jonathan Overpeck, a University of
Arizona scientist who has worked with McAfee, but was not involved in her latest study.
"This really confirms that this pattern has been happening already," he said.
McAfee reviewed data from 1955 to 1998, looking at the period from 1978 to 1998 in greater
detail. She also ran computer simulations to rule out the possibility that the precipitation changes
she found could simply be happening that way by chance.
———
Information from: Albuquerque Journal, http://www.abqjournal.com
http://www.lcsun-news.com/ci_10292189
Research says climate change already drying out Southwest
The Associated Press
Article Launched: 08/24/2008 02:02:18 PM MDT
ALBUQUERQUE, N.M.—Human-caused climate change has already shifted the jet stream that
brings the Southwest its winter snowstorms to the north, which is making the region's late winter
and early spring drier, according to new research by a team of Arizona scientists.
Their work supports one of climate-change scientists' key predictions for the Southwest—that the
jet stream will slowly shift to the north as the planet warms.
University of Arizona researcher Stephanie McAfee looked at rainfall data for the region and found
that the climate shift is already under way. Storms that would have hit the Four Corners region in
the past, instead get steered to the north. Not every year will be dry, McAfee said in an interview.
But the shift increases the proportion of years with below-average rain and snow.
Fewer storms from February to April lead to an earlier start of dry windy weather in New
Mexico, said Ed Polasko, a hydrologist at the National Weather Service in Albuquerque and a
leading snowpack expert in the state.
That can lead to an earlier snowmelt, Polasko said. But the dry winds can also evaporate the
snow, keeping it out of the state's rivers entirely.
Tom Swetnam, a fire-science researcher at the University of Arizona, says the climate change also
leads to an early and more dangerous wildfire season.
Scientists say the buildup of greenhouse gases from burning coal, oil and other fossil fuels is
changing Earth's climate.
They say the large deserts that circle the globe at low latitudes, like those found in Mexico or the
Middle East, will expand toward the poles. That, they say, can also be expected to dry out the
Southwest. McAfee's study is important because it shows that climate change is not merely a
scenario for the future, but may already be under way, said Jonathan Overpeck, a University of
Arizona scientist who has worked with McAfee, but was not involved in her latest study.
"This really confirms that this pattern has been happening already," he said.
McAfee reviewed data from 1955 to 1998, looking at the period from 1978 to 1998 in greater
detail. She also ran computer simulations to rule out the possibility that the precipitation changes
she found could simply be happening that way by chance.
———
Information from: Albuquerque Journal, http://www.abqjournal.com
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